Thursday, July 17, 2014

Brief Overview Of Dry-Out

Very brief summary this morning as I have appointments much of day.  The plots of 24-rainfall (MesoWest ending at 7 am today above) and CG flashes ending 2 am MST this morning below show the isolated character of storms yesterday over southeastern Arizona. Only 6 sites in the ALERT network had light rainfall - 3 in Redington Pass and 3 around Green Valley. Debris cloud has moved over southeastern Arizona from the widespread storm activity yesterday along the Rim Country. There may even be some high-base sprinkles around.

The early WRF-NAM predicts a quick return of at least moderate amounts of PW - as per forecasts valid valid at 6 am MST on the 18th (above) and 6 am on the 19th (below). Both an inverted trough along southern Baja and a weak westerly trough along the southern California coast appear to bring moisture back into the Southwest. However, the model forecasts an environment with a deep BL and little to no CAPE through the 19th.

No comments:

Post a Comment