Sunday, July 20, 2014

Outlook Continues Grim

A quick post this morning - the dry-out continues with PW values across southern Arizona ranging from 3/4 to just a bit over an inch, with highest values in southeast corner of state. The plot of detected CG flashes yesterday (above through 1 am this morning, July 20th) indicates a single thunderstorm over in Cochise County, with little happening over most of the state. The ALERT network again came in with no rainfall during past 24-hours.

The early WRF-NAM forecast of PW valid at 5 pm MST this afternoon (below) indicates continued dry conditions. The forecast produces some isolated storms in Cochise County the next several afternoons and little for rest of state. Graphic at bottom is early WRF-NAM forecast of total rainfall (on 5.4 km grid) through 11 pm next Tuesday night, the 22nd. So the model forecasts hot and mostly dry for first part of the new week.

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