Yesterday was another day with the lower elevations suppressed and most storm activity over higher elevations east, but also some to west, of Tucson metro. CG flash plot (above for 24-hours ending at 6 am MST this morning) shows eastern Pima County with only some lightning along the mountains at eastern border. MesoWest plot of rainfall ending at 7 am today (below) illustrates the situation well. Across the ALERT network 17 stations had rainfall and amounts were generally quite light, with only one site up in the Catalinas reporting more than a quarter of an inch. Photo second below shows a heavy storm moving up the west side of the Baboquivari Mountains from the south, approaching Kitt Peak.
Above is a quick and dirty 500 mb analysis for this morning. Many weak troughs here and there within the broad anticyclone. Dry air from west of Baja is intruding into the lower Colorado River Basin, and the morning sounding from Phoenix (NWS/SRP - not shown) indicates some low-level, dry air has encroached all the way into metro Phoenix area, Dry air is also moving westward from west Texas, so a bit of a squeeze is ongoing. The large cyclone over northern Mexico will brush across southern Arizona over the weekend and may bring an increase in storm activity over the deserts.
This morning's Tucson sounding (below) is quite similar to yesterday's. Wind profile continues poor for low elevations and CAPE is slight, but present. Most activity will again be focused on higher elevations, especially to the east of metro Tucson.
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