Tuesday, February 13, 2018

First February Weather Event Nearing

View south from Kitt Peak at 7:30 am MST this morning shows that Baboquivari is obscured by cloud, and it seems to capture some light precipitation on upper-right corner of image.

The current 500 mb analysis (above - from SPC) shows elongated, closed low over central California - pretty much as forecasted by models for a number of days now.

TPW analysis from MIMIC (above) at 7:00 am this morning shows that values of over an inch have moved northward to the south end of Baja. In comparison, the 00 UTC forecast of PW (below - from 00 UTC 5.4 km grid WRF-GFS forecast at Atmo - below) indicates quite good agreement between the two.

Second below is same forecast for precipitation, valid through 5:00 am on 16 Feb - heaviest amounts forecast to be to east, but model has 0.30" at airport. Note - the last event here at house that produced more than 0.25" occurred last year on December 17th.

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