Sunday, February 18, 2018

Winds, Cooler, And Slight Chances For Showers

Nice start to day on Sunday morning, as per view to north from campus. There does appear to be a shallow layer of grunge hanging along the foothills.

Stong 500 mb short-wave is forecast to dig south-southeastward toward Arizona during next 60-hours (above is ECMWF forecast from 00 UTC 18 Feb is valid at 00 UTC on the 21st). However, the GEFS plumes from 06 UTC for PW at TUS (below) indicate that PW will plunge from high values this morning to very low values by the 21st. This would mean more moisture-starved weather systems for rest of month.

However, the MIMIC TPW analysis from 7:00 am MST this morning (above) offers a bit of hope for next 48-hours, as higher PW seems to be curling northward west of northern Baja - indicating that the falling PW maybe overdone for next 36-hours (worth watching to see how the GEFS forecast PW plays out). Below is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo for total precipitation through 5:00 pm tomorrow afternoon. This forecast is certainly moisture-starved except at higher elevations.

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