Sunday, February 25, 2018

Next Few Days

We've been away to Santa Rita Abbey last two and just a quick report today. This morning was coldest so far in February with a low of 26 F. It was very cold yesterday morning in the Sonoita area and low at Abbey was estimated by me to have been 16 -19 F with light but hard frost that lasted past 9:00 am MST. Photo above shows Mt. Wrightson with no visible snow cover - unusual situation for this time of year.

Fast moving system will move across Arizona  Tuesday and Tuesday night - above is 00 UTC ECMWF 500 mb forecast valid at 5:00 pm on Tuesday afternoon. This short wave is forecast to be quickly off into the Plains and to bring winds Tuesday afternoon and then good chance for light showers Tuesday night.

Have only taken look at the 06 UTC GEFS plumes this morning. Very tight agreement among the members - 100 % chance of light rain at airport on Tuesday night the average forecast being a bit less than 2/10s of an inch (heavy black line above). Looks to be another moisture-starved event (see PW plumes just below), but good chance to add a bit to February totals.  The 10-m wind plumes at bottom forecast the stronger winds for Tuesday afternoon. Some final February interest though.

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