Monday, February 12, 2018

Wind Today - Some Rain At Mid-Week

View of Catalinas above from campus this morning shows some cumulus over might elevations - perhaps signaling more to come. Down at bottom shows tall buildings in downtown Denver poking into the clouds.

The high-resolution models continue to forecast windy conditions over southeastern Arizona (above is 6 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of 10-m winds valid at 1:00 pm MST this afternoon) - thus, fire weather warnings in effect.

The GEFS plumes from 6 UTC this morning (above) are still forecasting precipitation - now for all members of the ensemble. But large spreads continue in both timing and amounts. The members with higher amounts are those that forecast more subtropical moisture into southern Arizona. The plumes for 3-hour QPF below illustrate this spread in time and amount very clearly.  Appears best chance is forecast from late Wednesday into Thursday morning - amounts is a wait and watch game at this time.

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