Saturday, February 17, 2018

Overview Of Our Very Significant Event

Our unusual wet period has brought us a rare event - morning fog. The campus view above, at about 7:15 am MST, appears to have a visibility of about a mile or so and conditions are similar here at the house. It remains very mild with temperatures in the 50s F. After months of mostly dry sunshine, the past 3-4 days have been very pleasant - at least from my perspective. The south image at bottom from Kitt Peak shows clearing skies, but with fog in the valleys.

General event totals through 6:00 am this morning (above, from Pima County ALERT) indicate around 1.50 inches across the low-elevations of the network. The exception is from the south of the airport down to Amado, where amounts exceed  2.00 inches, with highest at Green Valley - 3.23 inches. Here at house the final, multi-day event and four periods of measurable rainfall left a total of 1.50" in the gauge. The event time series for precipitation at the airport (below) indicates 4 or 5 rain periods there.

I have been looking back at my logbook and can't find a cool season, multi-day event with this large of a total back through all of 2015. Didn't have energy or time to go into older logbooks.

The period of unsettled weather here will continue through rest of month, as per the global models. The Pacific ridge has been pushed westward to about 140 degrees (above - showing GFS analysis at 00 UTC last evening). The GEFS 500 mb average heights out at 168-hours (below, valid at 00 UTC on February 24th) indicates our period with digging short-waves coming south down east side of ridge will continue. This, of course, represents a very substantial change from the Fall and Winter pattern that has been keeping us warm and dry.

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