Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Valentine's Day - Quick Update

Little time this morning allows just a very quick update. A totally overcast sky this morning - that's a big change in itself.

The 7:00 am MIMIC TPW analysis below shows the subtropical moisture plume evolving (since yesterday) basically as forecast by models for past week, with highest PW seemingly pointed right at southeastern Arizona.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes above (for TUS QPF) show all model members forecasting measurable rainfall at the airport with main event beginning later today and then extending into Saturday morning the 17th. The large spread in times and amounts indicate that the moisture intrusion for the Pacific is being forecast somewhat differently by the various members.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (driven by the operational version - blue above) shows a forecast of 0.80" at the airport. There is a substantial gradient in amounts, with over half an inch decrease from the airport out to central Pima County.

Rainfall here of more than 0.40" would be the most significant event since August 13th last year - good potential for the first ground-soaking rain since late summer.

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