Bill Murray debuts his "Bill Bottoms" slacks at Pebble Beach this week - on the fairway above and from the beach at bottom.
The GEFS plumes have returned (NWS can not transmit experimental products to the public during shutdowns or threats thereof). Most of the 06 UTC forecast members indicate some precipitation at the airport after 12 UTC on the 14th. There continue to be large spreads among the forecasts, both in timing and amounts.
Graphics here are from Atmo's WRF-GFS run at 5.4 km last evening at 00 UTC (note PW is in mm, while precipitation below is inches). Above is PW forecast valid at 5:00 pm MST on the 15th, while below is accumulated precipitation through 5:00 pm on the 17th. Model forecasts a broad intrusion of high PW from the far south into southern Arizona - the first in a moisture starved year to date.
As digging systems push the West Coast ridge westward, it appears that next couple of weeks will be far more active than 2018 has been so far.
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