Monday, February 19, 2018

PW Stays High - Wind - Showers And Colder

A very unsettled day in store for Arizona today. At sunrise heavy clouds (from bright to dark) hung over the Catalinas.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes from yesterday (above) for local PW were a total bust, and PW remained about constant through the day and night - as per GPS PW time-series from campus below that has end time of ~ 12 UTC this morning. The MIMIC TPW analysis for 13 UTC (second below) indicates higher PW values continuing over south-central Arizona, ahead of strong cold front that will cross state today.

Yesterdays showers produced some measurable precipitation over the mountains and parts of the metro area. Afternoon showers here produced 0.01". I noted 0.33" at Pioneer Airfield.

Very strong and cold 500 mb short-wave trough will be moving into Arizona by noon today (above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS on 5.4 km grid last). Ahead of the associated cold front there will be strong winds (below 06 UTC WRF-GFS 10-m winds forecast for 2:00 pm MST on 1.8 km grid). Note the very strong winds forecast on the down-wind side of many mountain ranges (i.e., purple shades). This early morning winds are gusting over 50 mph and some locations in norther and eastern Arizona.

With the front and residual moisture approaching there will continue to be showers around, although the WRF-GFS forecast keeps measurable amounts mostly on mountains and east of Tucson.

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