We've been away the last two days, but on return there were a couple of dead bugs in rain gauge and no hint of moisture. Photo above is from 5:00 pm yesterday, showing how very suppressed the afternoon was. Down at bottom is Mt. Wrightson bit after sunrise yesterday morning with tiny cap cloud. Note how green it is out at Santa Rita Abbey (5 miles north-northwest of Sonoita).
Very little thunderstorm activity yesterday except along the Rim Country. - plot above (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am this morning.
Sounding plot for TWC (above from SPC) indicates substantial CAPE with 1.83" PW, but with two nasty inversions aloft. Winds continue somewhat chaotic, but storms that would form would move westward with anvils spreading to east. Forecast sounding for 2:00 pm today, below from 12 UTC WRF-NAM, continues to indicated large CAPE but also a very shallow, well-mixed BL reaching only to about 800 mb. Note that forecast sounding has dried some, with PW at 1.50". The WRF forecasts from last night and this morning indicate only limited storm activity again today, and that remains well south and southeast of the metro area. Appears to be a situation where upper-level subsidence is dominating BL heating and CAPE.
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