Stratus hanging to west side of Kitt Peak this morning - a bit unusual for summer.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above - from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 5:00 am MST this morning. Most of Pima County was suppressed wrt thunderstorms yesterday. Alert rainfall reports (below) for 24-hours ending also at 5:00 am. The rainfall occurred with the early morning showers, while rest of day had only a few sprinkles.
The morning forecast for the airport (above, from NWS) indicates 70 percent chances for measurable rainfall today and tonight, along with a flash flood watch.
The 12 UTC 500 mb chart (below) shows a weak cyclonic circulation over northern Mexico, with strong southerly winds on east side of this feature. The anticyclone center is over central Texas, somewhere south of Dallas-Ft. Worth. Temperatures remain quite warm at 500 mb over the Southwest.
The morning sounding plot for TWC (above) continues to show very moist conditions, with some CAPE, and two old BLs below 700 mb.
Radar forecast below is from the 12 UTC WRF-RR and is valid at 2:30 pm this afternoon. Heavy thunderstorms forecast to be over eastern Pima County at that time - we'll watch to see how all this evolves.
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