Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Hot And Dry In Short-term


Golden fields near Ririe, Idaho, this morning with the hay baled (Ririe is a few miles northeast of Idaho Falls).


Another hot and very suppressed day yesterday. Every day for past seven has had high temperatures over 100 F. Pleasant very early in mornings because of the low RH. Plot above shows detected CG flashes for 12-hours ending at 2:00 am MST this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala). Activity over Mexico staying mostly south of 30 

Morning 500 mb analysis (below from SPC) captures the huge anticyclone dominating much of western 2/3rds of country. There are apparently several imbedded centers of anticyclonic circulation within the large-scale feature.



This morning's upper-air sounding plot for TWC (above from SPC) indicates PW less than inch and with old BL reaching to 600 mb - no CAPE likely until low-level moisture increases. However, the GEFS ensemble plumes (below from 00 UTC on 20th) indicate an abrupt  increase in PW during the day on the 22nd. This would bring back the missing CAPE. The model increases the PW in response to a tropical disturbance forecast to be moving toward the Pacific off of southern Baja. Much of the weather late in week and over weekend will depend to some degree on how this tropical system evolves.



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