Yesterday And Today

Small rain shaft north of Kitt Peak yesterday afternoon at a bit after 04:00 pm MST. Plot of CG flashes below, for 24-hours through 01:00 am last night (from Atmo and Vaisala). Scattered activity in eastern Pima County.  There were 24 sites across the ALERT network that reported light rainfall - max on northwest side of Catalinas was 0.39". Brief shower here in evening left a Trace - TUS had a Trace, Atmo reported 0.01", but DM had a nice thunderstorm that produced 0.49".

Visible satellite image above is from 07:00 am and shows clouds already thinning out.

Morning 500 mb analysis below (from SPC) shows that weak trough has shifted from northern Mexico and is now across central Arizona.

The TWC sounding for 12 UTC this morning is above (also from SPC). Conditions remain moist with considerable CAPE today; however, winds below 500 mb remain light and variable. The steering flow for storms, however, is from the southwest, which is not favorable for this part of town unless storms would form over Tucson Mountains. 

My thoughts considering the sounding are that today appears to be more favorable for storms in eastern Pima County, even with the poor steering winds. However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts much diminished activity for today. Below is that models forecast for rainfall through midnight tonight. Quite grim, and a real mixed bag for today.