Nice view above of lenticular clouds over the Catalinas. Threatening skies at bottom from a bit before 4:30 pm MST yesterday.
There were light, predawn showers this morning that produced measurable rain at a few spots in the northeast part of the metro area. Plot below is 24-hour observations from MesoWest at the Univ. of Utah. Here at house we received 0.02".
The closed low at 500 mb did form and is currently (12 UTC analysis above) just west of San Diego. The system will move across Arizona today and tomorrow.
The Tucson upper-air sounding plot above for 12 UTC this morning is quite wet, with strong southwesterly winds aloft. No CAPE present yet, but temperatures in core of 500 mb low are about 10C colder, so some may develop as the low moves nearly over head by morning. The SREF plumes for QPF (from SPC website) show rain amounts forecast for airport - all members forecast measurable rain with amounts ranging from 0.15 to 0.80". Morning forecast from NWS has POPS for at least 0.01" at 80 to 90 percent today and tonight.
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