Saturday, February 08, 2020

Little Change In Forecasts For Next Week

Sunrise at Cabo San Lucas this morning. Image down at bottom shows north entrance to yellowstone National Park - two elk are grazing in the snow as a truck approaches. Both of these from Jack Hales' webcam wall.

Models continue to forecast a a digging short wave into the Southwest first part of next week - above is 06 UTC GFS 500 mb forecast valid at midnight next Monday night. This, if it verifies, will bring an abrupt end to our period of mild days here.

Models also forecast strong and gusty winds here both tomorrow and Monday - 10-m wind plumes above from 06 UTC GEFS runs.

Current model forecasts for QPF amounts here: above and below from 06 UTC GEFS forecasts, and bottom from 00 UTC WRF-GFS. The WRF forecast of precipitation through midnight Tuesday (second below) indicates a widespread event for southeastern Arizona. This will be the first precipitation event since January 21st.

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