Sunday, February 09, 2020

Update Impending Weather Event

Some alto cumulus over the metro area at 7:48 am MST this morning - bottom, a great sunrise at Cabo San Lucas a bit earlier.

The morning 500 mb analysis (above) shows that a strong short wave is indeed digging southward across California and Nevada - as has been predicted by the models for several days. This system will cutoff to our west and impact Tucson area through Wednesday. Gusty winds expected today followed by rain and mountain snows Monday late and Tuesday.

Morning outlooks and airport forecast from NWS this morning, above and below. Second below is outlook for excessive rainfall from Weather Prediction Center this morning.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes forecast essentially 100 percent chances of measurable rain at airport Monday night and during day Tuesday. The 12 UTC run of the WRF-RR this morning forecasts heaviest rains along the central Borderlands, extending north into eastern Pima County. Looks like a significant event for much of Arizona as we begin the second week of February - will be much welcome here.

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