Saturday, February 01, 2020

Showers Possible Monday

Catalinas before sunrise today (above), and plane above Finger Rock at midday yesterday (bottom).

A strong, 500 mb trough will swing eastward across the Great Basin and Arizona on Monday, the third of February. The main impacts according to forecasts from the 06 UTC model runs, will be a sharp temperature drop (above from GEFS) for the better part of next week, before a strong rebound for next weekend.

Gusty southwest winds will precede the front during the day on Monday (10-m GEFS wind plumes below). Second graphic below shows 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of winds valid at 11:00 am on Monday.

Forecast TWC sounding (above, from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) is valid at noon on Monday - this is as moist as conditions get during the day, with only 14 mm of PW and no CAPE. The attendant WRF forecast of total precipitation through 8:00 am on Tuesday the 4rth is below - only a few hundredths forecast for some spots in southeastern Arizona. 

Public forecasts have been mentioning chances for snow late Monday. While temperatures aloft get cold enough for flurries by Monday evening, this may not happen until after showers have moved east of our area. But, I'll take a careful look at this possibility tomorrow.

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