Friday, February 07, 2020

Unsettled Week Coming Up

Clear skies this morning over Tucson and the Catalinas. Down at bottom is view of the lights of LA from Lick Observatory (from Jack Hales webcam wall).

Today and Saturday should be quite pleasant with highs up into 70s. Same for Sunday, except that southwest winds pick up as next weather system approaches. Forecast above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS run is for winds at 3:00 pm on Sunday afternoon (the 9th).

Forecast below shows four members of the 06 UTC NWS GEFS model runs for 500 mb valid at 12 UTC on Wednesday the 12th. All members forecast closed low, or strong trough, over Arizona and northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF forecast is a bit faster than the GEFS with this system.

The GEFS forecasts for QPF at the airport are shown above and below - which is broken down into 3-hour increments. Timing is quite variable, but main rain event at airport  occurs (in the models) from Monday night into Wednesday. Large range of forecast amounts (above) also, with amounts from 0.10 to 1.30 inches. Time will tell, but it certainly looks like February's first precipitation event will occur this coming week.

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