Interesting Situation Later Today

Hazy skies at 7:00 am MST this morning, with some high-based cumulus overhead. There were some sprinkles around early last night, and the NWS and DM both reported a Trace of rain - couldn't tell if there had been a sprinkle here.

The NWS weather story this morning (above) calls for scattered thunderstorms today and forecast below indicates 50% of measurable rain at airport today, decreasing tonight.

Visible satellite image from 7:21 am (above) shows significant cloud cover over northwestern two thirds of Arizona, extending into California and Nevada. The phoenix radar (below) at the same time indicates thunderstorm activity extending southwest into far western Pima County. Plot of detected CG flashes (second below) shows about the same thing for last couple of hours (white to pink shades).

The 500 mb anticyclone has shifted eastward and is centered near the Texas - New Mexico border southwest of Amarillo.

 

The interesting aspect of today's situation is the WRF forecasts, compared to the NWS forecast. The forecast TWC sounding above is valid at 6:00 pm this evening - sounding looks quite favorable for evening storms. However, that run's forecast of total rainfall through 6:00 am on Friday leaves most of the metro area high and dry. So, dueling forecasts - given how bone-dry it is here at house, I'll be hoping for storms later today.