Saturday, June 12, 2021

Record High Temperatures

Red sunrise looking east down I-10 from San Simon, Arizona, into skies that are hazy with smoke from a number of wildfires. Down at bottom is a very dim view of the Superstitions, nearly hidden in smoke from the two large fires burning near Globe (the Telegraph and Mescal fires).

High temperatures for coming week are forecast to be at, and mostly above, 110 F each day at the airport (current morning forecast from TUS NWS above - note that Thursday and Friday highs are forecast at 112 F), with an excessive heat warning in effect through the week. It appears that many high temperature records will be broken across southeastern Arizona during the middle of the month.

Precipitable water values are very low this morning (the map above shows PW from the WRF-GFS analysis at Atmo for 11:00 pm MST last night). The PW was only 5.6 mm in this morning's TWC sounding. The forecast below (from the same 06 UTC WRF-GFS run) indicates PW creeping up to values around 20 mm by Tuesday morning. The CAPE forecast for Safford (from the 06 UTC GEFS runs - second below) shows values increasing during mid-week, indicating that high-based, dry thunderstorms will likely bring dangers for new, lightning-sparked wild fires.

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