Clouds over the Catalinas at sunrise this morning, as viewed from campus.
Thunderstorms yesterday mostly avoided Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties, as per plot of detected CG flashes (above - from Vaisal and Atmo) for 24 hours ending at 11:30 MST last night. However, there was a severe thunderstorm that produced wind damage west-northwest of Safford. There were some light showers across parts of the metro area during the night - two sites had measurable, but less than 0.05", amounts, and the airport and DM reported Traces.
Surface plot above from a bit before 6:00 am shows warm temperatures and some windy spots across Arizona. Winds were gusting 20 to 30 mph here at sunrise, and around 2:30 am Marana report gusts to 43 mph and the airport reported 35 mph. Visible satellite image from 7:20 am (below) shows heavy cloud cover over New Mexico, while eastern two thirds of Arizona is mostly clear.
The NHC was still calling Enrique a Tropical Storm this morning, but satellite images show what appears to be a remnant low with little or no deep convection. The remnants will still help to keep low-level moisture moving into Arizona, but with highest PW amounts remaining out west in the lower Colorado River Basin.
Morning sounding above from TWC shows multiple, residual boundary layers, with the layer below 850 mb having the most cooling and moistening since yesterday. The surface parcel has has the most CAPE, with the mixed layer having less. However, DCAPE is very large, indicating significant potential for strong outflow winds. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast sounding for TWC at 4:30 pm this afternoon (below) shows a single mixed layer, with surface CAPE fairly large, but mixed CAPE quite a bit smaller. The model does forecast light showers moving south across the metro area this evening.
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