Heavy clouds over the Rincons at 7:35 am MST this morning. Current NWS graphic for wind gusts possible over southeast Arizona tonight and tomorrow. Note the 68 mph at Bisbee! Second below shows 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for steady wind speed valid at 3:30 am early tomorrow morning.
Current 500 mb analysis (above) shows egg-shaped cutoff west of Baja - this feature will open-up today and then move across northern Mexico, Arizona and New Mexico. The forecast sounding (below) from the HRRR run this morning develops some CAPE at Tucson by early afternoon. NWS forecast discussion mentions slight chances for thunderstorms.
This morning's NWS forecast for the airport (above) indicates high POPs for measurable rain today through much of Wednesday. Graphic below shows the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for total rainfall through midnight tonight, indicating a widespread event across southeastern Arizona.
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