Showers Likely

View of Rincons at 7:05 am MST this morning showing chaotic skies.

The TWC/TUS morning sounding (above) shows strong winds aloft ahead of a Pacific closed low off of California. The low is forecast to move eastward and cross our area tonight and tomorrow, bringing low-elevation showers and mountain snows.

Plumes here from the 06 UTC GEFS runs show QPF (above), temperature (below), and precipitation type (second below). Showers are indicated at the airport tomorrow morning and again on Thursday night. Amounts forecast are fairly substantial for both events - which would bring a wet end to February, as well as a damp start for March.

Temperature continues to vary considerably (above) with two cold periods indicated. The plumes for precipitation type (below) indicate chances for snow mixed with the rain during both precipitation events.

Forecast from the 12 UTC WRF-RR (second below) shows the model's forecast for total precipitation through midnight Sunday night. Looks like an unsettled week ahead as meteorological winter comes to an end.