Sunset at La Paz in southern Baja yesterday.
Current NHC morning forecast for track of TS Beatriz (above). However, when I watch current satellite loops it appears that there is little left of Beatriz - perhaps it has already dissipated? Regardless, the new track forecast makes the devlopment of a GoC surge of moisture much less likely than I indicated yesterday. The distinct pressure rises that would be needed over the southern GoC seem unlikely, if the remains of Beatriz weaken slowly off of southern Baja.
The 14 UTC analysis of TPW (below) shows high PW values up to about 30 degrees N. However, morning runs of the WRF model at Atmo keep the moisture south of Arizona through the Fourth of July.
Current TUS/TWC morning sounding (above) is very dry and stable, with light and variable winds below 200 mb. The 06 UTC plumes for Td (below) show a steady increase of Td for next several days, but no distinct upward surge. The plumes for QPF (bottom) indicate only a slight chance for showers by next weekend. It appears now that a start to our summer storms may not occur until sometime in the second week of July - which is a bit later than past few summers.
Note - there was no rainfall here in June, and rain free conditions are now approaching 45 days. My weather log for June notes only that a bobcat strolled through our courtyard, apparently hunting rabbits, on the morning of the 29th.
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