Showers Here

View of Orion over the Rincons at about 4:40 am MST this early morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24 hours ending at 0923 UTC this morning (above from Atmo and Vaisala) shows only isolated thunderstorm activity over eastern Pima County. Plot of 24 hour precipitation (below from MesoWest) shows rain at only a few locations across the metro area. 

Here at the house we had thunder, wind gusts to around 40 mph and 0.05" a bit before 7:30 pm. The airport had thunder, gusts to 32 mph and 0.11", DM had thunder but no rain, and Atmo reported 0.09", making yesterday a fairly minor event.

The 500 mb anticyclone is elongated east-to-west this morning (above from SPC), with the center over the northeastern corner of New Mexico.  

Plumes from the 06 UTC run of the GEFS models (above) indicate increasing activity over the weekend. The NWS morning forecast has POPs of 70 percent each forecast period from Sunday through Monday night - these are agressive POPs for so far out during summer.

Forecast below is from 00 UTC WRF-GFS and is for precipitation totals through noon on Tuesday August 1st. Model forecasts a wet end for what's so far been a pretty dry month.