Showers To Southwest Yesterday

View toward the Rincons at 5:40 am MST this morning.

There were scattered storms yesterday afternoon, mostly to the south and west of the metro area. Five ALERT sites reported rainfall of 0.04" or more (above) - these were all near Green Valley. The plot below shows detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) through a bit after midnight last night. The narrow swath of thunderstorms stayed well south and west of the metro area. Note that yesterday's WRF forecast was fairly accurate (see previous post).

This morning's sounding from TUS/TWC (above) is quite moist, with PW of over an inch and a half. The inversion around 400 mb limits the amount of CAPE present.

Forecast above is from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS and is for rainfall amounts through 11:00 pm on July 12th (Wednesday). There is again very limited rainfall around the metro area. 

Forecast for 500 mb heights (below from the 06 UTC GFS run) shows the anticyclone established near the Four Corners by 18 UTC on July 17th (next Monday).

Current morning forecast from the NWS Tucson Office indicates 20 to 40 % chances for measurable rain at airport each day through the coming week (portion of forecast shown at bottom).