Large thunderstorm over the Catalinas at 6:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours ending at 0730z this morning. There were some flashes over the metro but most activity was over and west of the Catalinas. Plot below shows ALERT rainfall data through 8:00 am this morning - isolated storms at low elevations but many reports over and near the Catalinas. We had plenty of rumbling thunder here, but no rain.
Here are three rainfall outlooks for today: above from NWS showing their POPs; below from 12 UTC WRF-RR through noon tomorrow; and bottom from 06 UTC GEFS showing plumes for coming seven days.
The NWS is quite optimistic compared to the model forecasts.
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