Heavy clouds over the Rincons at 5:45 am MST this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes through a bit after midnight last night (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) indictes thunderstorms just got into the edge of Pima County yesterday, There was no measurable rainfall across the entire ALERT array.
The 06 UTC plumes for QPF from the GEFS (above) indicate chances for rain at the airport from late today into Tuesday morning. This would be welcome relief from our long dry period (last rain here was on May 18th).
The morning sounding from TUS/TWC (above) does not look favorable for storms, with little CAPE and less than 30 mm of PW. However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts develop considerable CAPE and increase PW to greater than 40 mm by evening. Precipitation from that forecast through 11:00 pm on Tuesday just nudges northeast to the airport (below).
Current graphic from the NWS webpage (below - but very hard to read) indicates a 32% chance of storms at the airport today. Finally we may have some weather to keep an eye on!
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