Another day with no rain here. Last rain was on May 18th - 58 days ago!
The airport reported a gust to 45 mph from the south at 10:00 pm MST last night, while Nogales had reported heavy thunderstorm, rain, and a gust to 44 from the east a bit earlier.
Out in the Pacific, hurricane Calvin is far from land and moving westward - Calvin was briefly a Cat 3 storm the morning of July 14th.
Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala - above for 24 hours ending about midnight) shows only isolated flashes in Pima County, with most storm activity to our east and south.
Plumes for QPF from 06 UTC GEFS (above) indicates slight chances for light showers most days during coming week. Note that the operational GFS (blue) is a serious outlier on the heavy side. The plumes for wind (below) show several days where the GFS is also an outlier for strong speeds.
Forecast above is from the 06 UTC WRF=GFS and shows forecast rainfall through noon noon tomorrow - metro area remains dry again.
Graphic above (from NWS Forecast Office webpage) shows latest dates of record for first summer rain here - looks like we're going into really unusual territory. Below is current morning forecast from the NWS through Tuesday night. NWS is again more optimistic than the WRF model - as it has been for past few days. Model forecasts have been more accurate during this period.
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