Few clouds hanging over the Catalinas at 5:45 am this morning.
It was quite suppressed over almost all of Arizona yesterday, but with more thunderstorm activity in Cochise County than was indicated by models yesterday. Plot of detected CG flashes through 0703 UTC (above - from Atmo and Vaisala) indicates some heavy storm activity in the Sierra Vista area. Very suppressed here in eastern Pima County, as per WRF forecasts yesterday.
This morning's TWC/TUS upper-air sounding (above) is quite a mess. Old elevated booundary layer has no CAPE, while deep mixed layer has just a sliver. PW is down to near an inch, and we'll need a moisture push to get things going again in our area.
Winds aloft are easterly at 15 to 25 kt, with the anticyclone center around the White Montains. The anticyclone will wobble around the Four Corners next several days, and hopefully an inverted trough in the easterlies will push more moisture into southern Arizona.
The 09 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo through noon tomorrow (below) indicates another dry day in most of our area,
Current morning forecast from NWS for the airport (below) indicates a distinct upturn in storm activity beginning late tomorrow, as also forecast by the models. Their POPs continue high in the short-term compared to the drier WRF forecasts.
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