Low-level moisture will increase tomorrow and Friday over southern Arizona. The features involved are an inverted trough over west Texas/northeastern Mexico and once Hurricane Fabio. Very moist air is pushing slowly up the GoC, related to southerly winds loosely associated with Fabio's remnant advancing northward (for more details see Jim Steenburgh's Fabio post - link to right). The IR image from 23 UTC (above) shows nicely how Fabio's middle and upper-level moisture is spreading into California and the northern Great Basin. However, PW values are very high over most of the GoC, and a push of this moisture into Arizona is likely by tomorrow morning. The impetus for this will be enhanced by the large MCSs, currently over Sonora, producing outflows into the middle and upper GoC tonight.
To the east and southeast, PW values with the inverted trough are not very impressive when compared to those off to our southwest. However, they are higher than what is currently over southern Arizona. Thus, as this feature advances into Northern Sonora and southern Arizona, it too will serve to bring PW values up and produce conditions more favorable for convection.
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