Yesterday was another down day here in eastern Pima County with no rain recorded in the ALERT network. There were storms over the mountains to the north and east. Significant outflows produced up there, but little additional development at lower elevations. There were some storms along the New Mexico border and significant MCSs in Mexico. IR image above is from 06 UTC (27 July 2012) and shows very cold cloud-tops with the MCS over western Chihuahua. By 12 UTC (water vapor image below) the MCS was still active and had shifted westward into Sonora. Considerable debris cloud again this morning, along with some light sprinkles.
PW remains around 1.4" over parts of southeast Arizona (see GPS and RAOB time series above for U. of A) but falls to around an 1.00" across the southwestern part of the state. This morning's Tucson skewT plot (below) indicates: no CAPE unless low-level moisture increases; poorly organized and light winds except in upper-troposphere; and a temperature inversion just above 500 mb that may be stronger than the sounding data indicate. All-in-all a very chopped up atmosphere to begin the day. The models increase 500 mb winds by late afternoon, but it appears that moisture increases will have to come from moist outflows and recycling in the short-term. The early WRF-GFS forecasts morning thunderstorms that have not materialized. So, I'll wait to see the 12 UTC forecast runs.
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