It's a bit after 5 pm, so here's a look at all three WRF forecasts of composite radar reflectivity valid at 5 pm MST. At the bottom is 5 pm regional radar reflectivity map from NCAR RAL (note - this is base scan data, not composite - a major problem with this NCAR product for our part of the world). Won't attempt an evaluation, but it appears none of the forecasts is exactly spot on at this time. Of interest, several cells are trying to develop nearly overhead.
WRF-GFS from 06 UTC
WRF-GFS from 12 UTC
WRF-NAM from 12 UTC
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