Strong Storms In Parts Of Metro Area Yesterday

Strong storms with heavy rains moved across parts of the Tucson metro area at mid-afternoon yesterday. Regional radar at 3 pm MST shown above. Two subsections of the ALERT data for past 24-hours are shown below. The areal coverage of heavier rain amounts indicates two strong storms moving toward the west-northwest. One from the DM AFB (0.99") area out to Picture Rocks (2.01") and the second from the north end of the Santa Rita Mountains west across Green Valley. Rain fell at 65 of the ALERT stations (70% areal coverage) with 22 sites having more than a half inch and 4 stations with more than an inch. Here at the house we had only a few rumbles of thunder and another day with only a trace of rain.

It remains very moist and moderately unstable across southeast Arizona. The day has started out with clear skies and sunshine for the first day in quite awhile. The early WRF-GFS forecast of PW at 5 pm MST (above) this afternoon (29 July 2012) shows values near and over 50 mm (~ 2 inches) across much of southern Arizona. There appears to be a trailing portion of the 500 mb inverted trough that will swing across southeastern Arizona this afternoon and evening. Winds at 500 mb are forecast to be from the SE at around 25 kt by afternoon, so that storms should move more rapidly toward the northwest today. The upper-level winds are forecast to be light, so that storms will again have trailing anvils. The models are keeping heavier storms in southeast Arizona again today. Potential for severe winds, mesoscale organization, and local heavy rains appears to be high today. WFR-GFS forecast of rain through midnight is shown below.