An interesting mid-June weather situation has developed as a middle-level trough along the West coast extends southward to at least 30 degrees north. The southwesterly winds with this trough have been steadily pushing moist air up across the GoC and western Mexico (easily seen above in the CIRA blended PW product at 12 UTC this morning). Such situations actually occur fairly frequently during mid-June, resulting in an upward pre-monsoon PW blip up to around 30 mm. This morning is even more interesting since a weak tropical disturbance over west Texas has brought even higher amounts of PW to the Big Bend country and southern New Mexico. The morning soundings today indicate just over an inch of PW at both Tucson and El Paso.
The early WRF-GFS this morning (Friday June 14th) continues to forecast high-based convection rooted in the deep boundary layer. The forecast of composite radar echoes valid 6 pm MST this evening is shown below.
The model forecast of the Tucson skew-T valid at 5 pm this evening is shown above, and it continues similar to that predicted by yesterday's run of the model.
Leuthold's version of the WRF-GFS forecasts even more activity tomorrow afternoon - above is composite radar forecast valid at 4 pm Saturday afternoon June 15th - just in time for the start of the NWS Monsoon Season. The model forecasts PW up to 35 mm at 4 pm tomorrow - below. It also forecasts a surprising amount of light rainfall to reach the ground through 11 pm MST tomorrow night - very bottom. Day 2 of the WRF-GFS forecasts are harder to evaluate when the model forecasts some activity on day 1- since day 2 will be strongly influenced by what actually happens on day 1. Never-the-less, awe at least have some weather interest here in the midst of our long run of 100+ degree days.
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