We have been on a road trip and have just now arrived back in Tucson. More on this later, but wanted to highlight TS Dalila.
TS Dalia formed sometime last night and the NHC is issuing forecasts for this TS today - 30 June 2013. Above is current position and below is current NHC forecast. Dalila is forecast to remain a TS and to move slowly to the northwest and then turn westward. Dalila, as per Cosme is forecast to move close to the important area for tropical disturbances, if they are to trigger GoC surges of low-level moisture. Cosme did produce a weak surge that has continued moving some low-level moisture into southern Arizona since last Thursday morning. Dalila may well enhance this moisture advection in a few days. It is an interesting situation.
Below is a 21 UTC IR satellite image that shows both Dalila and also strong afternoon convection over Sonora, Mexico. The convection in Sonora could act to push some of the better low-level moisture, which lies just to the south of the borde, into Arizona tomorrow. this requires a substantial MCS to move toward the central GoC, producing a strong, cold outflow. So another interesting feature this afternoon.
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