Thursday, June 06, 2013

WRF-GFS Forecasts Bit Of High-Elevation Convection


This morning's run of Mike Luethold's version of the WRF-GFS at Atmo indicates some high-based convection over the White Mountains this afternoon and then spreads some of this into southeast Arizona tomorrow afternoon. Above is the model forecast of composite radar echoes at 4 pm tomorrow (Friday 7 June), while the graphic below shows the forecast surface plot valid at the same time - definitely hot at low elevations. The convection produces little in the way of rainfall, and it remains to be seen whether some some of the buildups will produce a few dry-lightning strikes.


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