The NHC reported at 15 UTC this morning that Cosme had become a hurricane. The hurricane is shown in 19 UTC visible and IR satellite images above and below.
It appears that Cosme will not track far enough north to trigger a deep surge of mT moisture up the Gulf of California (GoC). However I do expect a shallow, short-lived, surge of low-level moisture to make it into southwest Arizona early Thursday morning. The graphic below is from this morning's 5.4 km forecast run of the WRF-NAM and shows precipitable water (PW) at 5 am MST Thursday morning. High amounts of PW will advance only about 2/3rds of the way up the GoC. It appears that convection and MCSs over Sonora will have to be the main main pushers of moisture northward during the next week or so, as they produce outflows over the central GoC and perhaps into southeastern Arizona.
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