Friday, November 22, 2013

Friday Morning - Quick Update On Southwest Storm

Water vapor image at 13 UTC (above) this morning shows closed upper-low along coast near Los Angeles. Currently (also about 13 UTC) there are strong radar echoes on the Catalinas (below), but I have not seen any lightning flashes.

Early stages of the storm have focused mainly on the Catalinas here in southeast Arizona. At 6 am MST 41 ALERT stations had recorded rainfall for past 24-hours. These reports have been mainly in the Catalinas and northwest part of the network. Two graphics here show the Catalinas (above) and Northwest (below) sectors of the network. Heaviest amounts have been over high elevations of the Catalinas. (Note that the ALERT gauges are not sensitive to low rainfall amounts, below 0.04", so coverage has been greater than indicated.) For example there have been 0.02" here and also at the airport. Across Arizona precipitation amounts have been substantial over the west and northwest half of the state. Both Phoenix and Scottsdale have measured over an inch of rain so far. Considerable thunderstorm activity also occurred from Yuma into the mountains northwest of Phoenix.

The early WRF-NAM forecasts from Atmo this morning predict that the event will shift eastward over Pima County and extend south-to-north across the Tucson area after midnight tonight. Forecast of composite radar echoes above is valid at 3 am MST early tomorrow morning (November 23rd). Forecasts of the entire event (precipitation totals forecast through 11 pm Sunday night) are below and continue to indicate heaviest rainfall totals from western Pima County north-northeastward into the Rim Country.

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