Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Mostly A Miss Last Night

The storms last evening, and during the night, stayed mostly to the north and avoided almost all of the Tucson Metro area. The morning forecast from the WRF-NAM was quite good, even though I thought it had under-played the convection. Above is photo from the house looking north about 6 pm MST - considerable area of updraft apparent but storms held off on this side of the mountains. This morning at 5 am only 16 ALERT stations reported rainfall during past 24-hours (17% as compared to 60% coverage last Saturday night). The Catlinas sector of the ALERT network (below) has all but 2 of the mostly light rainfall reports. The plot of CGs through 5 am this morning (bottom) shows that most of rain was associated with a thunderstorm that moved north-northeastward away from the Catalinas. Looks like the main weather activity during the coming week will remain well north of Arizona.

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