Thursday, November 07, 2013

Mild Night And Early Morning Here In Tucson

To follow up on Mike Leuthold's note yesterday - The 12 UTC runs of the WRF, with the change in the PBL he discussed, forecast a low at TUS this morning of 56F. This was down considerably from the midnight runs with the old PBL scheme that forecast wind speeds too high.

The Atmo T/Td time series above shows that temperatures there have been jumping up and down since about 9 pm last evening and temperatures at the airport this early morning have been holding around 56F to 60F. The MesoWest plot below for 5 am (7 November) indicates temperatures ranging from 40F at Green Valley to 64F at the Saguaro RAWS station. East winds have been strongest on and near the mountains. Here at the house the low appears to have been 48F before midnight with current temperature at about 60F. Obviously the winds broke through even at our low elevation during the night. So, the WRF models' temperature forecasts from 6 am yesterday were very much on the mark, while the NWS grid forecasts didn't pick up the extent of the warming during the night (see post below).

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