Saturday, November 02, 2013

Middle-Level Clouds During The Night

The 500 mb closed low west of Baja (top panel is NAM 500 mb analysis for 18 UTC) is forecast to open up, weaken, and move rapidly across Arizona tonight. As it does, there is a brief period of middle-level cloudiness during the night. The morning run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo forecasts some radar echoes across eastern Pima County around midnight (forecast of composite radar echoes valid at midnight is just above). These echoes are mostly aloft, since the forecast of accumulated precipitation through noon on Sunday (below) shows that little rain is forecast to reach the ground. The forecast skew-T for TUS, valid at 2 am MST, is shown at the bottom. The forecast indicates a saturated layer between 700 and 500 mb, but with the lower levels remaining extremely dry.

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