Saturday, November 16, 2013

Nice Morning - Saturday, November 16th

View above shows some cumulus hugging the Catalinas this morning. Yesterday was characterized mostly by heavy cloud cover and gusty afternoon winds. Most locations had gusts in the 30 to 40+ mph range, although on the north side of town it was not as windy. I estimate winds of 20 to 25 mph here, and that's similar to the observations at the Saguaro RAWS station. Strongest gusts I noticed when I parsed through the observations were at Ft. Huachuca, where the maximum reached 47 mph. Four ALERT stations, in the eastern Catalinas and Redington Pass measured rainfall. All-in-all the early WRF forecasts from Atmo verified quite well.

In the long-term, the global models indicate that the next significant weather system will affect the Southwest around next Friday and the weekend. The two 500 mb forecast panels here are from 00 UTC last evening and are valid at 144-hours, which is 5 pm MST next Thursday afternoon. The GFS (above) forecasts a fairly progressive short wave, with the vorticity maximum scooting along over the borderlands. The ECMWF (below) has much more amplitude forecast for the northern wave-train across Canada and into the northeastern U.S. This amplified pattern forces a closed low over the Southwest that lingers for several days before moving eastward. Something to watch again. But, a caution here is that neither of these two global models have had a very good track record for forecasts out beyond 5-days for the last week or two

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