Last Cold Morning Of Week?

It was another cold morning across much of southeast Arizo, with lows at many spots near or below freezing for the second straight morning. Here at the house the low hit 30F this morning, making it the first low this Fall below freezing. Empire RAWS hit 29F yesterday and Sasabe RAWS had lows of 31F yesterday and today. What about tomorrow? - will address this below.

But first, looking south, there is another TD this morning - number 18 for the East Pacfic this season. Forecast from NHC is above, indicating it will become another tropical storm (Sonia). The 1230 UTC IR satellite image below shows cloud mass with the TD near 15N 110W, but with deep convection extending northward to near the mouth of the GoC. Moisture from the subtropics increases over the weekend, but model-forecasted rainfall just brushes the southeast corner of Arizona. More heavy rains possible for central Mexico and perhaps again into south Texas.

This morning a front is moving southward along the Front Range of New Mexico, as a 500 mb short wave crosses eastern Colorado and New Mexico. This front will back into southeastern Arizona tonight bringing strong, easterly, downslope winds with it. Below is early WRF-NAM, from Atmo, forecast of 10-meter winds valid at 2 am tomorrow morning (Saturday, November 2nd). The strong winds result in much warmer temperatures for tomorrow and Sunday mornings - lows 20 to 25F higher than past two days. So assuming that the WRF verifies, this is indeed the last cold morning of the current, short cold spell.