I have been working on other things today and have just gotten around to taking a look at the WRF morning forecasts from Atmo. The models are sending somewhat conflicting messages today (internally - but not between the two variants). Both the NAM and GFS versions forecast little precipitation in eastern Pima County, as the rest of the 500 trough swings through from the west coast - exception is at higher elevations in the Catalinas and Rincons. Forecast from the GFS variant is shown above for accumulated precipitation through midnight tonight (Monday, 4 November). However, the forecast sounding for TUS valid at 8 pm this evening (below) appears quite favorable for convection and some rainfall - note that CAPE is more than 700 J/kg and PW is around 3/4 of an inch. So, the forecasts appear more favorable for eastern Pima County than they did on Saturday morning. Will be interesting to see if there is rain in the gauge here by midnight.
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