Yesterday there appear to have been two, isolated mountain thunderstorms over all of southeastern Arizona, but no other storms for several hundreds of km. The two plots of detected CG flashes here (from Vaisala and Atmo) are for 24-hours ending at midnight (above) and for 12-hours ending at 5:00 am MST (below). There was extensive thunderstorm activity over much of northern Mexico yesterday and that had shifted out over the southern GoC this morning. This situation is good for continuing to push low-level moisture back north of the border, and especially up the GoC.
Analysis of blended PW from CIRA (above for 12 UTC) indicates amounts greater than 25 mm pushing northward into southern and south-central Arizona - morning soundings verify this also. Very high PW of 50 and greater mm remains over south half of GoC, but thunderstorms over southern gulf should help push the mT air northward.
This morning's sounding from TWC on campus presents a mixture of pros and cons re the renewal of local thunderstorm activity. Pros - decent PW in the BL that is likely to increase and moderate CAPE. Cons - a strong inversion around 700 mb separates the surface-based BL from a very hot, elevated BL that has advected in from the northwest, and L/V winds below 500 mb.
Large-scale subsidence will likely increase the strength of the higher inversion around 500 mb. Today will probably see the battle between a hostile, subsiding large-scale environment and BL mixing over the mountains continue. However as a large, inverted trough develops over our region, things will improve as the weekend approaches. As for today's battle, the 12 UTC forecast runs of the WRF should be very interesting.
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