A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to move north-northwestward over much of Pima County early this morning. Composite radar above is from 8:00 am MST - currently sprinkling here at house. Day will likely be dominated by cool air outflows and minimal heating. Neither version of the 06 UTC WRF forecasts from Atmo forecast the morning storms accurately, so Mike's discussion re the new 12 UTC runs will be the better word.
The morning sounding (12 UTC skewT plot below from SPC) exhibits substantial CAPE and high PW - quite a change from yesterday's heat. The winds aloft continue to be very chopped up, so that problem continues with us. There may be an MCV nearby, which is adding confusion to the wind field. Cool air at surface means a new boundary layer will likely have to build in places where the sun breaks through. Complicated mix of features again in play. So it goes.
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