The NHC Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded TD-01E to a Tropical Storm this morning - the first storm of the season for the eastern Pacific is named Agatha, as per above. From the NHC morning discussion re Agatha:------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THAT...COMBINED WITH 35-KT WIND VECTORS
NOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS...IS THE BASIS ON WHICH THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND ALSO
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.
..........
SINCE AGATHA WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST
30C AND WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING A
NEAR 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OFTENTIMES WEAKENS.
DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...AND AS FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.
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